'However far the stream flows it never forgets it source' - Case study of conflict and cooperation within the Nile basin

The Father of African Rivers

The Nile is arguably the most infamous river on our planet, its determined flow originates just south of the equator making it's monumental 4,132 mile journey northward fanning out into the Mediterranean.  The river has for millennia been a central feature of life in North Eastern Africa nurturing some of humanities earliest and most influential civilizations. Today the river's influence is clearly evidenced from satellite imagery as it injects a stroke of luscious green into a sea of sand as it moves northward undeterred by the sheer size of the Sahara. 

Figure 1 - Satellite Imagery of the Nile in Egypt - Source

The Nile is an 'international river' with it's drainage basin encompassing 11 countries (Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, South Sudan, Republic of Sudan and Egypt), or about 3 million square Kilometres thus covering about 10% of the African continent (Kameri Mbote 2007). Over 480 million people live within Nile Basin countries (about 40% of Africa's population) and some 257 million live within the Nile Basin boundaries (Nile Basin Water Resource Atlas 2016). The Nile like all international rivers is interwoven with a mosaic of cultures and societies. Tensions arise as all riparian states of the Nile Basin to some extent rely on the Nile for their basic needs and economic growth (World Bank 2007:115). Each riparian country is heterogenous with their own developmental goals and trajectories as evidenced in figure 2a), 2b) and 2c) (Wealth of Socio-Economic resources for the Nile Basin can be found using this link). But does this heterogeneity and reliance on the Nile result in conflict or can it lead to greater cooperation?

Figure 2a) Varying rural and urban population growth rates within Nile Basin states with predicted rural and urban population growth rates in the future - Source

Figure 2b) Varying Human Development Index ratings of Nile Basin states - Source

Figure 2c) top graph indicates the GDP and GDI per capita as of 2014 whilst the lower graph depicts the contribution of sectors to total GDP in Nile Basin Countries as of 2014 - Source

Bilateralism vs Multilateralism
The 11 Riparian states of the Nile can be split into the upstream and downstream states. The downstream states consist of Egypt, The Republic of Sudan and South Sudan. Whilst the upstream states can be split into those through which one of the two main tributaries of the Nile flow. The Blue Nile flows from Ethiopia whilst the White Nile and it's tributaries flow through the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania. Egypt exists as the traditional user of the Nile though upstream nations have begun to focus on controlling more of the Nile to achieve their own development goals. The first agreement relating to the Nile had colonial ties and was signed between Egypt and the British empire on behalf of Sudan and Britains other colonies within the Nile Basin (Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania) in 1929 and was called the Nile Water Agreement. Independence in the region from the 1950's and 60s led to the need for a new treaty in 1959 - the Agreement for the full utilisation of Nile Waters was signed between newly independent Sudan and Egypt who had plans to construct the Aswan dam. Many of the upstream riparian nations refused to sign what they saw as a colonial era agreement with the 'Nyerere doctrine' asserted by the first president of Tanganyika (Tanzania) Julius Nyerere with Tanganyika refusing to be bound by the colonial-era agreement (Knobelsdorf 2006:632). The agreement was seen as a bilateral agreement between the downstream nations ignoring the upstream riparians - the 1959 agreement represents the 'backbone' of the hydropolitical dilemma in the Nile basin (Cascao 2009). A division therefore existed between the downstream nations who amplified there historic and natural right to the river versus the upstream riparian states who had been largely ignored in initial agreements despite controlling the flow of the Nile. Riparian states also claim riverine integrity in which each riparian state is entitled to the natural flow of the river within it's borders as well as absolute territorial sovereignty. Tensions within the region increasingly grew with the Egyptian foreign minster in 1988 claiming the next wars in the Middle East would be fought over the Nile whilst media reports in 1991 claimed Sudan had missiles aimed at the Aswan dam (Brunnee and Toope 2002:106).

In 1999 the Nile basin tried to move beyond the bilateral nature of former agreements to engage all riparian states in negotiations with the Nile Basin initiative which is led by a council of minister of water affairs for the Nile Basin (World Bank 2007:83). The Nile basin initiative seeks to achieve 'sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilisation of, and benefit from, the common Nile basin water resources' (Nile Basin States 1999, Article 3). The riparian states realised multilateral cooperation is needed as unilateral management will likely result in serious degradation of the common resource with successful multilateral management likely leading to win-win scenario in which water flow and quality is maximized for all those within the region. In 2010 tensions again rose as Egypt froze it's membership of the Nile Basin Initiative due to the signing of the Cooperative Framework agreement (CFA). The CFA also known as the Entebbe agreement was signed by 6 upstream riparians - Uganda, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Burundi and saw the emergence of the upper stream riparians as a 'power to be reckoned with' (Salman 2013:17) after years of marginalisation. The emergence of the youngest recognised sovereign nation in the world, South Sudan in 2011 further complicated matters in regard to the Nile Basin initiative (Salman 2011) who decided not to sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement.

A 'Renaissance' of Regional cooperation?
The construction of Africa's largest hydroelectric power plant - the Grand renaissance dam in Ethiopia has also raised concerns. Originally expected to be completed in 2017, construction is still underway. The dam is being constructed on the Blue Nile which contributes up to 85% of the Niles flow (Nile Basin Initiative 2019) and the environmental and economic impacts for downstream nations has been an area of debate. Egypt had been particularly concerned about the dam's impact on Egypt's power generating capacity, irrigation potential and it's economy in general (Yihdego et al 2018:5). Though Ethiopia argue the project will bring economic and environmental regional benefits with it being suggested that the dam would reduce sedimentation benefitting downstream dams and would produce cheap hydropower for the region as well as controlling floods (Tawfik 2016, Chekene Tesfa 2013). Therefore the dam could facilitate regional cooperation beyond just water management by greatly increasing energy trade within the region. As with the dam's construction, negotiations continue to stall, though Egypt and Ethiopia have agreed to continue talks brokering an agreement on the sideline of a Russia-Africa summit in Sochi (Al Jazeera 2019). The threat of climate change (Goulden et al 2009) and increased water scarcity makes negotiations increasingly more critical  The Grand Ethiopian renaissance dam exists as the most significant and contested construction on the Nile yet, only time will tell if the dam can offer a renaissance of regional cooperation to overcome nearly a century of contestation between upstream and downstream riparians of Africa's greatest river.

Figure 3 - The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam under construction (2019) - Source